“The vice president, in terms of the election, does not have any impact,” Donald Trump declared at the National Association of Black Journalists (NABJ) Convention on July 31. This proclamation followed the announcement of Senator JD Vance and Governor Tim Walz as the vice presidential nominees for the Trump and Harris campaigns. But was Donald Trump correct? Do VPs significantly influence the success of a campaign?
One prominent campaign theory is that vice presidential candidates may bring in more votes from their home states and swing states, which is sometimes referred to as the home state advantage. Hailing from Minnesota and Ohio, Walz and Vance were likely chosen with the hope that they would bring in votes from their home states or important battleground states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Other campaign managers aim to appeal to a voting demographic where the presidential candidates lack support.
But in the past 200 years, the number of votes brought in by Vice Presidents has been near negligible. According to a study done by political scientists Kyle Kopko and Christopher Devine, “A vice presidential candidate’s state of residence generally has no effect on how a presidential candidate performs in that state. The vice presidential home state advantage is, essentially, zero.” But if data trends don’t show the benefits of vice presidential nominees, what do Vance and Walz bring to the table?
Rather than boosting the success of a campaign, vice president nominees usually affect their presidential candidate’s image. If presidential candidates choose a running mate who seems unprepared for the office or has low public approval ratings, it can reflect poorly on their judgment. According to a 2010 study by Stanford University, vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin cost previously leading nominee John McCain 2.1 million votes in the 2008 election. Due to Palin’s lack of media skills and foreign policy experience, many Republicans found her unfit to serve as the vice president and lost trust in McCain.
“Although it’s difficult to quantify, the vice presidential candidates seem to have more potential to hurt their candidates than help them,” says social studies teacher Gregory Mancini. Vance and Walz have received both praise and criticism on social media, which raises the question of if Trump or Harris chose the right running mate. According to Mancini, “Right now, Vance has the potential to be a problem for Trump.” He suggests that Vance’s “media gaffs” might bring too much negative press to Trump’s candidacy.
With Vance and Walz scheduled for an official debate on Oct. 1, both candidates still have their chance to make their marks on this election. As the 2024 race continues, only time will tell if Vance and Walz might make or break their campaigns.
